Poker Tax – Part 3 of 3
On May 19, 2009 California voters defeated ballot Proposition 1C which would have allowed the state to borrow from future lottery proceeds to help fund the estimated $42 billion deficit in the current budget. Some people are now suggesting that the state will move to legalize one form of internet gambling, poker, by introducing and passing the Online Poker Enforcement Compliance Consumer Protection Act. I am not so sure. There concepts addressed in the legislative proposal, (it is not a bill yet) may make sense to some and not to others. A sensible point is that it does seek to comply with the intra-state exemption under the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 (“UIGEA”). The rationale is simple, as the most populous state in the nation, and possibly the sixth- seventh largest economy in the world, California may be a good free standing model. Many smaller states would likely benefit from federal legislation that would allow cross border reach. But, is now the right time to try and solve the budget deficit in part through legalization of a form of online gambling? It may or may not be.
The yet to be introduced proposal is the subject of intense discussions among and between many of the affected interests, namely, card clubs, race track operators, tribal casino operators, state regulators and other groups. The economic forecasts vary widely, based upon assumptions of market size, average revenue per customer, tax rates and other factors. But, the current deficit cannot, in the short term be reduced by a implementing a system, still in the design phase. It may take several years for all the pieces to come together, and even then, the real outcome, may or may not be meaningful to the state. So the argument is why not at least get started so that in future years the revenues from legalized online poker will at least contribute to a reduction in the growth rate of the deficit. This is both a legal and political question for California. The California enabling legislation would need to comply with all of the requirements of the UIGEA, intrastate exemption, but most importantly it would need political support.
Political support may come from the top down, that is through the influence of lobbyists for those interests expecting to benefit from legalization, and from the bottom up, such as from poker player groups. But, at least one poker players’ organization as supported the Frank bills, HR. 2266, and H.R. 2267 which propose a federal system of licensing, subject to the states opting out. Whether the organized poker player groups would really support a California bill will ultimately test their motivation. Without a broad base of support, it is questionable whether the current efforts will be effective in bringing about legalization of online poker.